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The biggest risk for the stock market would be if the labor market continues to slow, said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, in an interview with MarketWatch.
“We can see that it’s getting harder for people who lose their job to get a new job,” Tilley said.
Despite positive signs in the recent broadening out of participation in the stock-market rally, Tilly said his firm cut its allocation to small caps two weeks ago to neutral.
“It is a simple story. If the labor market keeps slowing, spending will slow, and business hiring will slowing even more,” he said.
The Russell 2000 small-cap index was down 1% Thursday, while the large-cap S&P 500 was flat, at last check, according to FactSet.
Shares of Fiserv are off 5% in afternoon trading as Wall Street weighs in on the likely prospect of a leadership change with well-respected Chief Executive Frank Bisignano recently picked to lead the Social Security Administration, pending Senate approval.
It “cannot be understated how pivotal Mr. Bisignano has been to [Fiserv’s] elite level of execution,” Jefferies anlayst Trevor Williams wrote. Barclays analyst Ramsey El-Assal wrote that Bisignano “is particularly well-regarded by investors” and noted “the completely unexpected nature of the announcement.”
Fiserv, a $100 billion-plus company that handles merchant acquiring and other payment-technology functions, said in a release that it “has an established, long-term succession plan.”
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As milestones go, $100,000 for bitcoin is an impressive one. As seen in the video posted to X above, Jeff deGraaf, chairman and head of research at Renaissance Macro Research, was watching the tape as the momentous event occurred.
“It’s endemic of the animal spirits found in the surging IPO index, the breakout of high vs low beta names and the continued highs posted by cyclical vs defensive names,” deGraaf said in a Thursday morning note.
Bitcoin was maintaining its six-figure profile, trading at $101,046 in recent action, according to Kraken.
Two of the three major U.S. equity indexes were higher in afternoon trade Thursday, putting the Nasdaq and S&P 500 on the doorstep of extending their record-breaking run.
Dow was Dow about 150 points, or 0.3%, around 44,865.
S&P 500 index was up 3 points, or less than 0.1%,a near 6,089
Nasdaq was 45 points higher, or 0.2%, near 19,780
“It’s just like gold, only it’s virtual. It’s digital. People are not using it as a form of payment or a store of value. It’s highly volatile,” he said.
Powell’s comparison of bitcoin to gold is a significant development “as it introduces another level of credibility to bitcoin as a major asset in global markets,” Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said in emailed comments. “The fact that gold is still about 10 times larger than bitcoin should offer additional insight into how much more room there is for bitcoin to grow from current levels.”
A “decently robust” U.S. jobs report on Friday probably wouldn’t derail the Federal Reserve from delivering an interest-rate cut this month, as the Fed’s policy rate remains restrictive, according to Russ Brownback, head of global macro positioning for fixed income at BlackRock.
Stocks were little changed at the opening bell Thursday, looking for direction after the Dow closed above the 45,000 milestone for the first time in the previous session as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also scored record closes.
Investors continue to digest economic data as they await Friday’s November jobs report, assessing prospects for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, as expected, agreed in an online meeting Thursday to hold off on unwinding around 2.2 million barrels a day in production cuts.
OPEC+ had earlier this year planned to begin phasing in the unwind in October, but has now delayed it several times. Thursday’s decision means it will now begin in April, instead of January, and will be fully phased in by September 2026. The reluctance to unwind the cuts reflects a soft oil market amid ample supply and soft demand, particularly from China.
Oil futures were up modestly after the decision, but have seen choppy trade.
“Taking a step back, OPEC+ is sticking to “Plan A” by still targeting a gradual pick-up in oil production. However, the shifting tectonic plates of the global oil market will continue to make life difficult and risk a greater and/or more rapid pivot by OPEC+ members down the line,” said David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, in a note.
Treasury yields were climbing on Thursday as traders digested a fresh batch of U.S. economic data and awaited Friday’s jobs report for clues to the Federal Reserve’s next steps on interest rates.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up 4 basis points to 4.22%, while the 2-year yield was 5 basis points higher at 4.18%, according to FactSet
“Tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls and next week’s November CPI are still going to be what guides the Fed’s December 18 decision and what shapes the new projections in this month’s SEP,” said Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial, in a Thursday client note.
Stock-index futures remained slightly lower after another round of jobs-related economic data Thursday morning.
The number of Americans who applied for first-time unemployment benefits during Thanksgiving week rose to a six-week high, but jobless claims stayed at extremely low levels in a clean bill of health for the U.S. economy. Nee
Investors will be paying close attention to Friday’s November jobs report amid expectations the Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points later this month.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 remained marginally lower after the data. The major indexes all scored record closes on Wednesday.
